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For these risk factors, we selected two levels for the binary variables and four levels for the continuous variables as follows: Sex: male and female Current age, in years: 20, 30, 40 and 50 Current smoking status: smoker and non-smoker Baseline BMI, in kg/m 2 : 20, 25, 30 and 35 Baseline eGFR, in ml min 1 [1.73 m] 2 : 30, 60, 90 and 120 HbA 1c , in mmol/mol (%): 42 (6), 64 (8), 86 (10) and 108 (12) The lowest and highest levels of the continuous risk factors were selected to encompass the normal ranges of their values and contain mean values of the population of patients with type 1 diabetes used to develop the simulation model, referred to as the real-world population [27] (see Table 1)

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