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The replacement math that repeal campaigns avoid Some states have taken a swing at replacing property tax revenue, but few have succeeded

urban: 25.2%)

Next steps Apply the SCM to other states that implemented tobacco control programs after California (e.g., Massachusetts, Oregon) Explore heterogeneous effects by analyzing how the treatment effect varies across post-treatment years using rolling-window or recursive estimations Compare SCM estimates with difference-in-differences approaches applied to the same data Investigate conformal inference methods (Chernozhukov et al., 2021) for formal confidence intervals in the SCM framework 12

And investment can be divided into inventory investment and social fixed asset investment